A Strategic Analysis of Shane Bieber's Opt-in and How it Helps the Jays

While the loss still stings for Toronto Blue Jays fans following Major League Baseball’s most-viewed baseball game since Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, there is already positive news that will help Jays fans look forward to next season.

Shane Bieber has opted into his $16 million player option with the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2026 season. Bieber’s return highlights the thought process between opting out and opting in, and best of all, his return greatly benefits the Blue Jays.

Organization over money

Bieber’s return means that his short time with the Blue Jays was great enough that he valued the organization above earning more money for himself. A “player option” in a contract means the player has a choice to opt out of their contract with the team and head into free agency, where they can sign a new contract. While Bieber did recently recover from elbow surgery, Bieber is still an impressive pitcher. Because Bieber exercised his player option, he will make $16 million next season as long as his contract is not terminated. But had Bieber opted out, he would have likely secured a longer-term, higher-paying contract with another team. Alternatively, Bieber could have opted out and negotiated a longer-term, higher-paying contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, which would put the Blue Jays in a tough position: spend too much to keep Bieber or not spend and thus lose a quality starting pitcher. His opt-in signifies that the organization has impressed him enough to warrant at least one more year with the team.

Bieber is a Belieber

Bieber’s opt-in indicates that he seems confident he will perform better next season. There is a strategic rationale for why a player might opt out of a player option, and a strategic rationale for why a player opts into a player option. To better explain this rationale, let us assume that Bieber’s best financial outcome if he opted out could have been a five-year $100 million contract. In the limited number of games Bieber started in the regular season, he had a 3.57 ERA, ERA meaning “earned run average” and generally used as an indicator of how good or bad a pitcher is. The lower the number, the better the pitcher. The average ERA in the American League (where the Toronto Blue Jays play) is 4.09. Three similar-age players who pitched four times as many games as Bieber this season, with a similar ERA (I looked at Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, and Framber Valdez), earned, on average, $21 million last year. Given that Bieber is 30 years old, teams will avoid giving lengthy (6+) contracts since pitchers tend to decline in their 30s. This is the basis for my rough guess of a five-year $100 million contract. What all of this means is that by opting in, Bieber could also be operating under the belief that he will play better than he did last season, giving him more leverage to demand an even higher-paying, long-term contract. Some sports fans might compare this to a “prove it” deal, referring to when players sign a one-year contract to convince the team that their value in the upcoming season warrants a longer-term, higher-paying contract. This is great for the Blue Jays because if Bieber performs better, it will be a massive boost for their chances of returning to the World Series.

Helps Jays go for Bo

Finally, Bieber’s return gives the Blue Jays a higher chance to re-sign Bo Bichette. Bo Bichette is currently a free agent, and if he signs with another team, that would be a significant blow to the Blue Jays’ World Series hopes. From 2021 to 2025, Bo Bichette finished 1st, 1st, 4th, 131st, and 2nd in the American League for hits, and he only finished 131st in 2024 because he was injured for half of the season. In simple terms, Bo Bichette is really good at hitting the ball with his baseball bat. Bieber’s return means that the Blue Jays do not have to entertain the possibility of trying to pay Bieber a lot more to stay. And not paying more for Bieber means the Blue Jays free up money they can hopefully use to re-sign Bo Bichette.

Bieber’s return highlights the factors and considerations a player must consider when they make major decisions regarding their professional career.